The National Investment Center released an analysis of three factors that are driving occupancy in the primary markets that the NIC MAP survey of seniors housing tracks. (This is a distinct report from the IL/AL markets review that was also recently released.) Encouragingly, the report stated that “occupancy growth over the last four quarters has been notable, and the market’s recovery appears to be well-anchored in the short- and long-term.” The three factors driving that recovery were identified as demand recovery, inventory growth during the pandemic, and the construction pipeline. Reportedly, 78% of the senior housing units vacated in the primary markets during the pandemic have been re-occupied as of the second quarter of 2022. Additionally, 12 of the 35 primary markets have seen a full recovery of their occupied units, which include Boston, Minneapolis, Dallas, New York, Seattle, Riverside, D.C., Sacramento, Kansas City, Phoenix, Cleveland and Atlanta. In terms of inventory growth, the primary markets saw an expansion of 5.3% over the last four quarters, with another 5.1% of inventory under construction in the second quarter of 2022. However, occupancy recovery has varied greatly across each of the primary markets, attributed to the relative supply and demand dynamics of those markets. For example, Atlanta and Cleveland showed the greatest recovery in terms reoccupied units that had been vacated during the pandemic; however, because these markets also saw an respectively large overall increase in unit inventory over the same period, the overall occupancy rates for these markets was the lowest across all markets. By contrast, San Antonio and Dallas are two markets that are near full recovery, and again is attributed to an optimal balance between reoccupied units and new inventory being introduced into those markets. Those markets that have the highest rates of construction currently, such as Miami and Portland, are projected to have a reported slow-down in overall recovery in the coming quarters, as new inventory becomes available.

Questions?

Contact:

Alyssa Odegaard – Vice President, Public Policy 
cell: 206-948-2279